International Business News

Reducing to 1% GDP growth expectations in 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy warned that 6 to 8 billion euros in savings or additional revenues must be found.

While a half point of growth in less than about 5 billion shortfall for the state budget, the risk of a vicious circle is not excluded, the lowering of growth forecasts calling plans savings which in turn contribute to more depressed activity.

"You will never make me believe that with 1,000 billion of public expenditure, we can not find 5 billion savings," tempers, however, the rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, the UMP Gilles Carrez.

The rating agency Fitch has placed on negative watch Thursday's long-term ratings of BNP Paribas (AA-) and Credit Agricole (AA-) as part of its periodic evaluation of European institutions.

The credit rating of long-term Credit Mutuel (AA-) was also placed on negative watch, but that of the Societe Generale (A +) was confirmed.

The notes of sustainability ("Viability rating") of BNP Paribas (AA-), Credit Agricole (AA-) and Societe Generale (A +) are also placed on negative watch.

Fitch said that the negative phase of monitoring should be short, and that if cuts in long-term notes were determined, they could not exceed one notch, the minimum level of major French banks are "A +".

In the case of Societe Generale and BNP, Fitch notes that the business model of universal banking world they have chosen seems "particularly sensitive to increased challenges which face the financial markets."

"These challenges result from a myriad of changes in the regulatory and economic developments, especially in the euro area," said Fitch.

Also as part of its review of banks, Fitch has also downgraded the Swiss bank UBS to "A +" to "A".

Those of Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank are also placed on negative watch, just as the U.S., the Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

The Bank of France reiterated Monday its forecast of growth of 0.1% of the French economy in the third quarter, based on the results of its latest monthly business survey.

She had halved its forecast last month.

The business climate indicator in industry has remained stable in September at 97 while the service sector shrank from one point to 96.

In September, "industrial activity has remained stable, the contraction in the automotive and manufacturing equipment was offset by the increase observed in the food industry and some sectors of production of consumer goods" , says the Bank of France.

She added that the forecasts of business leaders expect a stable business. "

The utilization of production capacity improved slightly, to 79.3% against 78.8% in August. However, it remains below its historical average of 82.

In services, says the Bank of France, sales rebounded in September, "particularly in transportation, computer services and to a lesser extent temporary employment." The outlook for the coming months, however, foreshadow a slowdown in activity.

Over a third of French say they have experienced "a situation of poverty" at least once in their lives, according to an Ipsos for the Secours Populaire. The respondents considered 92% as a "poverty" the fact of "regularly experience significant difficulties in obtaining a healthy, balanced diet."

Over a third of French (35%) say they have experienced "a situation of poverty" at least once in their lives, a proportion rising, says an Ipsos for the Secours Populaire announced Thursday. This rate of 35% is seven points higher than in the previous survey in 2010.

Nearly one in four French people (22%) also indicates that it is "ever had (to) say, at a time of (his) life, that (he was) on the verge of a situation poverty ", but he finally experience it.

Sign considered "alarming" by Secours Populaire, "young people are increasingly concerned", "ages 15-34 are almost a third of French (29%) who have experienced job insecurity." "They were only 22% in 2010."

And 85% of respondents believe that "the risk (their) children know one day a situation of poverty are higher than for (their) generation" for 50% risk is "significantly higher" for 35% they are "slightly higher". Only 11% consider them "lower".

The French set the poverty line at 1,031 euros per month for a single person, a figure "stable" compared to 2010, "a little below the minimum wage (1070.76 euros net per month), but always" superior to 954 euros the official poverty line calculated by INSEE. "

The respondents considered 92% as a "poverty" the fact of "regularly experience significant difficulties in obtaining a healthy, balanced diet." But they are also likely to discuss the fact of not being able to "send their children on holiday at least once a year" (73%) or not being able to "access goods or cultural activities and entertainment for himself or family "(71%).

Survey conducted by telephone August 19 and 20 with a sample of 1,016 people representative of the French population aged 15 and over, by the quota method.

Wall Street opened sharply higher Friday's session, the day after its worst session in more than two years.

The figure better than expected job creation in July in the U.S., coupled with an unemployment rate slightly down, eased the anxieties of the markets and given them new impetus.

A few minutes after the start of trading, the Dow Jones gained 1.5% to 11,554.5 points, Standard & Poor's 500 index 1.32% to 1215.91 points and the Nasdaq Composite 1.29% to 2589.38 points.

According to figures released Friday by the Labor Department, the U.S. economy created 117,000 non-farm jobs in July and the rate of unemployment has fallen from 9.2% to 9.1%.

Economists on average had forecast 85,000 new jobs.

Values, the way Procter & Gamble has reported an increase in its quarterly results, which pushed up the title of 2.14% on opening.

The benefit of General Motors has nearly doubled in the second quarter exceeded market expectations, thanks to an increase in market share, particularly in the United States, the number one U.S. auto.

Net income stood at $ 2.52 billion, $ 1.54 per share, against $ 1.33 billion, $ 0.85 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S had forecast $ 1.20 per share.

Revenues came out up 19% to 39.4 billion, better than the 36.74 billion expected by the consensus.

The new car registrations in France were charged in July the fourth consecutive month of decline, and the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA) maintains its forecast of a decline of 8% to 10% of the market this year with the end of scrapping.

The CCFA said Monday that new car registrations in France fell by 5.9% last month to 159,945 units. July 2011 had counted 20 working days, one fewer than in July 2010, the decline in comparable number of working days (CJO) stood at 1.2%.

"July is an important month for the market before the August break, performance remains quite good," said a spokesman for the CCFA."It turns well to a decrease of 8% to 10% throughout the year as it will be impossible to trace levels of late 2010."

The French market continues to nibble advance acquired in the first quarter, delivery period of the last cars ordered before the end of the scrapping. In the first seven months of the year, it remains still rising, but only just (0.2%).

Demand is traditionally strong in July before the last burst of holiday departures. In June, the market shrank from 12.6% in raw data – and 3.9% on CJO.

"No real surprise in July, a small decline.The market is now entering a phase worst, with a second half ahead mechanically more difficult, "said Philippe Barrier, industry analyst at Societe Generale.

THE PRODUCT MIX OF BENEFIT TO FOREIGN

The scrapping has benefited mainly small cars and French manufacturers, which is a great specialty, the 'product mix' has rebalanced toward larger models since the end of aid.Foreign manufacturers such as Volkswagen's German (7%) benefit.

In July, registrations French manufacturers have fallen by 9.3% – those of PSA Peugeot Citroen fell 7.0% and Renault's 12.4% – while sales of foreign manufacturers have declined only 1.2%.

Of these, however, Italy's Fiat showed a fall of 22.8% across the group because of its high exposure to the city car segment.

The performance of the Renault group in the past month hides a wide disparity between the low cost brand Dacia (-48.8%) and diamond brand (-2.7%).

Dacia continues to suffer from supply problems in diesel engines because many manufacturers in Spain and Turkey fail to keep up with demand, and the fall in sales of LPG Sandero since the abolition of the government bonus for this type of engine.

In contrast, commercial offers for motorists to shift to diesel fuel to alleviate the supply problems have borne fruit on the Renault brand.

The market for light trucks for its part, experienced declines of 11.8% unadjusted and 7.4% on CJO, reflecting the slowdown in economic activity during the summer.

However, registrations of trucks still rose 34.6%, this segment continued to benefit from favorable comparisons because the restart was later.

Same causes, same effects: the trade deficit of France in May broke the record set the previous month, due to higher imports, especially energy, and relative weakness of exports.

The negative balance of trade balance rose to 7.422 billion euros, after 7.174 billion in April, according to figures released Thursday by Customs.

The first five months of the year, the French trade deficit thus came to 33.4 billion, a figure up 60% year on year and is already nearly two-thirds of the annual deficit in 2010 (51.4 billion).

This rapid deepening can be explained by a combination of French weakness in exports and strong imports.

A 34.2 billion euros in May, exports are still unable to find their average level of the year preceding the outbreak of the financial crisis in September 2008, an average of just over 35.4 billion.

"France is among the major industrialized economies (excluding Japan), which recorded the lowest export growth after the trough of the crisis," said Alberto Balboni economist at research firm Xerfi.

Meanwhile, imports are installed at over 41 billion per month, a level higher than before the crisis.This partly explained by the surge in oil prices, which inflates the energy bill of France.

But this structural factor is not sufficient alone to explain the steady decline in the trade balance: it only amplifies the persistent weakness of French industry for export.

"AÉRODÉPENDANCE"

Thus, while the trade deficit in manufacturing has more than doubled in less than a year (4.8 billion in May), the excess of transport equipment was divided by three and that of the food industry has increased by less than 200 million euros.

Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, Pierre Lellouche, this resulted in competition increasingly fierce global in areas such as rail or nuclear.

"For a long time, the weaknesses of foreign trade in France were obscured by the so-called 'major contracts,'" he told reporters Thursday."But customers of yesterday have become the competitors of today."

For its part, Alberto Balboni of Xerfi, highlights the significant decline in aerospace exports (-6.2% over one month) and he sees "some evidence" aérodépendance 'of France, aerospace accounts for more 10% of French exports and any slowdown in performance has a significant effect on the external accounts of the country. "

In May, France has sold its 21 Airbus reported 1.334 million euros against 26 in April to 1.702 million.

The deficit in April had increased partly because of the purchase by Air France-KLM.In the aftermath, hundreds of MPs had called the airline to choose Airbus rather than Boeing for its next big order, expected this fall.

Even if the services are doing probably better than the manufacturing sector, these figures confirm a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter, said Dominique Barbet, senior economist at BNP Paribas.

"The growth of gross domestic product in the second quarter (+0.3% at best) should be much lower than the first (+0.9%)," he wrote in a research note.

Wall Street opened slightly lower Friday, the release of strong U.S. data was overshadowed by concerns about the debt crisis in the eurozone and the fragility of the European banking sector.

In early trade, the Dow lost 0.1% (11.89 points) to 12,038.11 points and the S & P 500 yielded 0.08% (1.01 points) to 1282.49 points.The Nasdaq composite market gave up its 0.28% (7.58 points) to 2679.17 points.

Investors remain nervous while bank stocks are split down the middle of the day in Europe in the wake of the collapse of banks in Italy and Spain.

According to official statistics released Friday, orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose slightly more than expected last month, which eased some concerns about the possible slowdown in the industry.

For its part, the growth of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up slightly in the first quarter to 1.9% annual rate according to the final estimate, against 1.8% previously.

Side values, Google yielded 0.65% to 477.04 dollars after a source familiar with the matter reported that the Internet giant was covered by at least three antitrust investigations in the United States.

Accenture, which announced Thursday the results better than expected and raised its forecast profit for the year, gained 0.97% against the current trend.

Crisis in the euro area, weak growth in the United States, overheating in the emerging economies: the threats could plunge the world into recession, says the Fund.

There are "very clear risk" for global economic recovery, said Friday, June 17 the International Monetary Fund during the update of its economic forecasts. The debt crisis in the euro area, disappointing growth in the U.S. and the risk of overheating in some emerging economies are threats to the global economy, said Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF.

The IFI, in an update of its economic forecasts, financial and budgetary biannual published in Sao Paulo, has virtually maintained its forecast for global growth to 4.3% against 4.4% in April, but found that "the activity was slowing down temporarily".

The IMF has also lowered its growth forecast for the United States. He did not table more than 2.5% in 2011, against 2.8% in its April forecast, and 3% in those of January. At the time, he felt that the extension of rebates on income tax would bear fruit. But "growth has disappointed the United States," he said.

This "weak activity than expected" is "partly due to transitory factors, including rising commodity prices, weather, and disruption of the production chain in the U.S. industry caused by the earthquake in Japan, "explained economist Institution of Washington. The Fund has urged Congress to meet "immediately" the legal limit of public debt of the federal state, which is now hostage to disagreements between Republican and Democratic members on the budget.

"In contrast, growth has surprised on the upside in the euro area, driven by investments more generous in Germany and France", welcomed the IMF. For the entire area, the IMF raised its forecast to 2.0% in 2011 against 1.6%. Germany had the highest growth in the G7, to 3.2%.That of France would reach 2.1%, a figure still higher than the 2% announced two days before in the preliminary findings in a Fund's annual report on the economy.

The smaller economies in the euro area do not show the same health. Bending under their public debt, they threaten the stability of the banking sector on the continent and beyond, said the Fund. He said "political leaders must strive to make rapid progress in the consolidation of the financial system." And the opportunity to take the necessary measures "could be lost in an unpredictable manner." Or "in the event of a severe market event, a shock could impact beyond the euro area by the game at a time of exposure border [of banks to the debt of these countries] and to a general decline in risk appetite, "said Fund.

This warning is issued while Greece, countries which the IMF in May 2010 granted a loan of 30 billion euros, continues to sink into the economic crisis. She took a political turn with the sling of the parliamentary majority against a draconian fiscal discipline.