The French economy rebounded in 2010 from 1.5% in 2009 after suffering its worst recession since the Second World War, confirmed on Friday the INSEE, which confirmed the scenario of a gradual acceleration of growth over the quarters.
The growth of the last three months of last year was revised upwards to 0.4% against 0.3% originally estimated in mid-February, while that of the third quarter was revised downward in the same proportions, 0.2% against 0.3% previously announced, according to the detailed national accounts.
Hours before the publication of these figures, Economy Minister Christine Lagarde has confirmed a growth target of 2.0% this year, many economists still consider overly optimistic.
"I will maintain my growth forecast for 2011 to 2.0%," she said during an exclusive interview with Reuters Insider performed in the United States.
The government should introduce next month its updated forecasts in Stability Programme submitted to the European Commission.
Christine Lagarde has shown the same confidence in reducing public deficits, the government intends to reduce to 6.0% of GDP this year after 7.7% last year.
"I do not have final figures yet but I think we will do very, very good job of continuing decline in the deficit in 2011 and 2010," she said.
CONFIDENCE
Several surveys and indicators in recent weeks have shown a marked improvement of business climate and business opportunities in many sectors of the economy.
Industrial production increased by 1.0% in January, twice more than expected and business confidence in March rose to its highest level in three years.
"This movement to improve investigations lasted for several months and it is quite general, it is said in France as in other countries, it affects all sectors, so we think it reflects a reality," said Reuters Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas.
"If we have a very good first quarter, the order of 0.7-0.8% growth as required by the Bank of France forecast (2.0% of government) became accessible.It is not won but we must recognize that it is more plausible that a few months. "
The Bank of France reiterated two weeks ago its growth forecast of 0.8% over the first three months of the year, although its governor, Christian Noyer, said that the trend in early 2011 would not be sustained probably not the whole year.
INFLATION THREAT PURCHASING POWER
The acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter is mainly due to strong consumer spending, which grew by 0.9% over the last three months of the year, after +0.5% in July-September.
Acceleration that does nothing to improve the purchasing power, on the contrary, inflation (+0.5% after +0.2%), including fueled by soaring energy prices and food, has erased much of the increase of 0.8% of gross disposable income, limiting the increase in purchasing power to 0.3% in October to December, against 0.7% in third quarter .
Households have actually dipped into their savings to increase spending: the savings rate fell 0.5 points to 15.6% return for the end of the year, its lowest level since late 2008.On average over 2010, the French savings rate stood at 15.8%, down 0.4 percentage points.
Another survey released Friday by the INSEE showed a deterioration in consumer confidence in March.
"This is the key issue for households in the months to come," said Frédérique Cerisier. Is the labor market will recover quickly enough for the acceleration of inflation is not too biting? This n is not at all certain and that is what to watch. "
The non-financial businesses, they have reduced their margin rates half a point in the fourth quarter, to 29.3%.Was dragged down both by rising commodity prices, which limited the growth of value added and wage increases (+0.9% in the fourth quarter) and numbers (0, 2%).
On average over the year, the rate of margins of non-financial corporations stood at 29.7% after 29.8% in 2009.