A European bank of six could fail resistance testing, said on Tuesday the euro area sources familiar with the matter.
These results, including the European Central Bank (ECB) that they hope will persuade investors that the EU is finally clear about its banking problems, should encourage those states reluctant to support their banks can not finance themselves .
According to sources interviewed, the EBA (EBA) is expected to announce in the coming weeks between 10 and 15 of the 91 banks that have spent the stress tests have failed.These include Greek banks, German, Portuguese and Spanish.
Last year, seven banks had not validated the previous resistance tests, deemed insufficiently demanding. Thus the Irish banks had they succeeded, just weeks before being rescued from shipwreck by the Irish State.
The 2011 tests sought to determine whether the European institutions had the capital needed to cope with severe economic shocks scenarios with consequences such as loans.They also measured the impact of an impairment of securities held by banks, including those issued by Greece.
European banks must have a capital ratio of "hard" greater than 5% to pass the new tests that simulate the resistance of a recession two years, as part of an operation to reassure taxpayers and improve the image sector.
CREDIBILITY SOUGHT
"How should banks fail? I would say between ten and 15," said a source from the ECB, which developed the test in conjunction with the EBA.
According to another source, EBA hopes that the number of failed approach that level to prove that these tests seriously.However, the number of failed banks should not be higher because the BEA does not want to cause panic in the markets, which could aggravate the budget crisis in Europe.
"To demonstrate that these tests are credible, the EBA will show that the number of failures is significant but not substantial," said a source. "A figure of around ten seems adequate."
A spokesman of the EBA said that the tests were still ongoing and declined to comment on speculation about the results. The results of these tests should be announced on July 13 to coincide with a meeting of finance ministers.
TEST POLICY
These tests also have a political stature.While the ABE and the ECB want to expose the flaws of some banks, national regulators want their side to prevent the occurrence of their banks on the list, because it shows their incompetence in not having themselves discovered these faults.
"All national regulators will fight for none of their banks on the list," said a source. "It is a mark of incompetence."
The EBA, however, try not to concentrate the pressure only on the most fragile countries such as Spain, not to create an aversion to international creditors of these countries and their banks.
"They will avoid bringing out an epicenter," said a source. "If it was Spain, it would be very bad news.Failure of German banks to stress tests would be much less risky. "
First scheduled for late June publication of the results was delayed because some countries, including Germany, had submitted data too optimistic in ABE, which has asked to review their copy.
Pending the official results in the finance ministries of European countries, we are preparing now to take action to support banks that have not passed the tests.