Rapid closure of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant, in Alsace, the grid could put a strain on both sides of the Rhine and raise prices during peak demand, believe analysts and traders polled by Reuters.
Francois Hollande promised, if he wins the presidential election in May, to close the oldest nuclear power plant the French fleet which, besides its 34 years of service, is also trè ; s criticized because of its location in a seismic zone.
But the Socialist candidate did not say when, and this schedule will be critical to network operators as to the market as they will need several months to adjust.
Bernard Cazeneuve, in charge of energy with the candidate Francois Hollande, declined to comment on the consequences of closing Fessenheim.
If, in case of victory, Francois Hollande kept his promise in the wake of its accession to the Elysee, the French offer of electricity could shrink and prices s' fly to favor consumption peaks during which France is already operating at full production capacity, according to traders.
In France, each degree Celsius less on the thermometer causes an increase of 2,300 megawatts (MW) of electricity consumption, equivalent to twice the consumption of a city Marseille as a third of French homes are heated with electric heaters.
During the cold snap in February, the French electricity demand hit a record 101,700 MW, 105 MW more than the country's production. Prices have skyrocketed and electricity transmission network (RTE), the network manager, was forced to ask consumers to reduce the maximum use of their devices é ; electric.
A decline in nuclear output could increase the deficit during the next peak consumption.
EDF, which manages 58 French reactors, and RTE did not wish to comment on the impact of a shutdown of Fessenheim on offer.
"We see every year a new record demand, so close Fessenheim certainly mean higher prices and risks for the supply of winter," said a trader based in electricity london.
Traders and analysts said that France, the leading exporter of electricity in Europe, will not take the risk to close Fessenheim until you have installed production capacity sufficient to offset this loss.
"Fessenheim close perhaps in 2017, and the impact on prices will then depend on the ability of France had to quickly build wind farms, gas-fired unit and ; s biomass to compensate for the lost electricity, "said the trader in London.
At Flamanville (Manche), in 2007 EDF began construction of a new EPR nuclear reactor of 1650 MW. Delayed by 4 years, its commissioning is scheduled for 2016.
"If the EPR is again delayed, this could complicate things," said another trader.
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Also, if Fessenheim closed in 2012, Germany would face supply problems.
"If we close Fessenheim, there will be a real problem to secure supplies at local level on the southwest of Germany," said Fabien Roques, head of research at the company IHS CERA council.
"Fessenheim really brings (to Germany) production at a specific location on the network for managing peak demand during cold snaps," he added.
The plant, located between Mulhouse and Freiburg, has a capacity of 1,800 megawatts.
After the disaster of Fukushima, Japan in March 2011, Germany decided to close eight of its 17 nuclear reactors, four of which were located in the south-west , a heavily populated area that is home to large cities such as Stuttgart and Heidelberg.
This region is now importing more electricity from the north – which produces massive electricity from wind – but also from France, Belgium and Luxembourg, according to analysts.
A spokesman for EnBW Transportnetze, the electricity transmission network in south-west Germany, confirmed to Reuters that a closure of Fessenheim would impact on its network . Should be used more frequently to production sites and non-nuclear alternative to maintain balance in the region, she said.
Main black spot, a plant closure could jeopardize Alsatian drawing rights granted to the German supplier E.ON, 800 MW from the central French Fessenheim and Cattenom, also near the German border .
These rights could be redirected to other stations, said a spokesman for the German utility, adding that the exchange agreement may be renegotiated between the two countries.