International Business News

Weakened by the crisis, the French capital again to make headlines in the business press but professionals are questioning the sustainability of a recovery that dare not speak its name.

The uncertainties in the sector are also the prospect of entry into force of new rules that regulators want to impose the financial sector, whether the standards of solvency of banks and insurance and new tax regimes on capital gains and bonuses of investment funds.

The Forum's capital organized by Reuters of 8 to 10 September in Paris will provide an update on the new standards and expectations of the profession after the excesses of the years 2004-2007 and the bursting of the credit bubble.

According to data compiled by Thomson Reuters over the period from January 1 to September 7, the activity of private equity in France, measured by value is more than six times lower than it was in 2006, a report close to that observed globally.

The nascent recovery is still tangible: the activity is about 60% higher than it was in 2009.

"There is still a little early to give a real trend for the end of the year, although there is still a 'stock' of deals that can be done," said Vincent Ponsonnaille, a lawyer specializing in capital at Linklaters.

"Especially on small and mid-cap activity there," says his side OSSMANN Remy, vice president of the consulting firm LEK in France.

Selling Frozen Picard, the largest operation in France since the bankruptcy of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, however, showed that the billion euros was more impenetrable.

VIRTUOUS CIRCLE

But uncertainty over the economic environment and financial markets remain a brake, particularly in terms of IPOs (IPO).

"If the IPO market reopens for sizes and valuations fairly consistent, it is a bit of a virtuous circle for a variety of companies that are still in the portfolios," said Catherine Vincent, Chief Executive within the activity of investment bank Goldman Sachs in Paris.

Analysts said the IPO provided the chain of casinos Lucien Barriere will be a test.

But conversely, the withdrawal of the sale of fast food chain Quick or the retirement homes Medi-Partners also show that investors remain cautious.

"There is a fairly long list of transactions that have no takers, either for reasons of size or profile, for reasons of funding or pending award," notes Céline Méchain, director in charge of relationship with the investment fund at Goldman Sachs.

The continued funding of operations, moreover, remains uncertain because if the banks agreed to finance numerous records at the end of the first semester, they must organize now, that is to say, find investors interested in debt.

This process has also been launched on Monday by the banks in charge of LBO mounted for the redemption of Picard Frozen by Lion Capital.

"We can not consider access to the debt as an asset for the moment," he told Reuters late August Monique Cohen, managing partner of private equity group Apax.

NEW WAVE

The banks also require different ways to structure transactions so as to regain control faster business purchased by the funds in case of restructuring.

Because the crisis has shown the procedure to safeguard French was rather favorable to shareholders and creditors trying to turn faster debt capital.

The news of the capital since the outbreak of the crisis has been marked by restructuring banks that were very expensive to fund and precipitated the departure of certain officers.

In France, corporate restructuring or OMS Monier were characterized by such deadweight losses for the PAI, Sagard and Cognetas.

"We had a first wave of restructuring.By 2011, there could be a second for companies whose underlying economic activity is not to go and who only see their problem of excessive leverage, "says Catherine Vincent.

"2012 will be the first year where we will face a wall of refinancing," explained her side Céline Méchain.

"We'll see how some funds are recovering from their previous failures, particularly in the fundraising going and coming but for now there are many more records in 2009 rollover," said Olivier Tordjman, a lawyer with Ayache Salama.

"And if subjects remain restructuring, there is less risk of 'dead'," he says.

The vagaries of the economic recovery and the prospect of new banking regulations temper the optimism of investors after quarterly results exceeded expectations published this week by several major European banks.

Reversals of impairment greater than expected second quarter have offset the slowdown in investment banking, penalized by the threats of contagion of the crisis of the Greek sovereign debt investors who scalded.

Societe Generale has reported a profit of nearly one and half times higher than expected, and Standard Chartered, which operates mainly in Asia, has released a record result.

Lloyds has returned to the green to the first half thanks to a halving of asset impairments.

However, European banks have not divested of their caution, particularly when faced with the consequences of coming prudential reforms.Although the deadlines for application of solvency ratios so-called "Basel III have been repulsed, concerns remain about them.

"There is fragility in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets," said John Peace, Chairman of StanChart, adding that British banks were particularly disadvantaged by the rules on pay, taxation and financial regulation.

Most European banks which have published their results on Wednesday have followed the trend shown Monday by BNP Paribas and HSBC with a lower level of bad debts.

However, even if SocGen gained 0.6% at the Paris Stock Exchange in the afternoon, StanChart lost 6.3% to the London Stock Exchange.

The quarterly results and the prudence of banks are an excuse for profit taking while the lure investors to the sector had been increased by the publication, July 23, heartening results of resistance tests suffered by banks in the European Union.

The European banking stocks index yielded 1.2% on Wednesday afternoon, after having won over 20% since early July against 10% for pan-European Stoxx 600 index – and nearly 9% since the release of stress tests .

"The results show that emerging markets like China, India and Brazil are areas where we can go to generate meaningful activities," said Ted Huang, a fund manager Pinebridge Asia High Yield in the results of StanChart.

Against the trend, the German Postbank increased its provisions for impairment related to risky real estate loans and has revised downwards its objectives.

Allied Irish Banks The Irish, partly nationalized, has also reported a doubling of losses in the first half while making clear progress towards its recapitalization.

These two facilities join the Italian UniCredit, the first credit agency in Central and Eastern Europe, which was published on Tuesday a quarterly profit well below consensus, hit by a dramatic drop in trading revenue.

BP confirmed the upcoming resignation of its CEO, Tony Hayward, widely criticized for his handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and its replacement by the American Robert Dudley.

This announcement coincides with a special charge of $ 32.2 billion (24.8 billion euros) related to the oil spill, which plunges the accounts of the British group into the red to the tune of 16.97 billion only for the quarter April-June.

"The tragedy of the explosion and damage wells Macondo environments that ensued marked a turning point," said the group's president, Carl-Henric Svanberg after announcing the departure of Tony Hayward.

"BP is a strong company but will now be (…) a different company."

Robert Dudley, 54, currently in charge of the group's activities in the U.S., oversees efforts to contain the oil spill, considered the worst in the history of the United States, which pollutes the region since the collapse of the Deepwater Horizon platform April 20.

He will be based in London after taking office and will sell the direction of the American branch in Lamar McKey, the company said.

Tony Hayward to take its share towards the non-executive of TNK-BP, BP's joint venture in Russia.He will receive compensation equivalent to one year's salary, or 1,045,000 pounds (1,250,000 euros).

Hayward had angered the U.S. administration for having complained of being overstretched since the beginning of the disaster and for having, during his congressional testimony, tried to dodge responsibility for his group.

Excluding costs related to oil spills and other non-operating expenses, BP poster for the second quarter adjusted earnings of the replacement cost of 4.98 billion dollars, in accordance with Reuters based on estimates of 11 analysts.

Adjusted earnings replacement cost excludes gains or losses related to changes in valuation reserves of fuel and is comparable to net income.

In a separate announcement, BP said its asset sales could reach a total of 30 billion dollars over the next 18 months, which could allow it to reduce its debt by between 10 and 15 billion dollars.

The group said it will review its dividend policy once established results for the fourth quarter.

Schlumberger, a global oilfield services company, reported Friday in an increase in line with expectations, 33% of its quarterly earnings, strong growth of its land in North America offset the effects of the moratorium on drilling offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.

Net income from continuing operations of U.S. group stood at 818 million dollars (632 million euros) over the second quarter, or $ 0.68 per share, against 613 million ($ 0.51 per share) last year.

Turnover rose 7.4% to 5.94 billion dollars.

Analysts on average had forecast earnings per share of $ 0.68 and revenues of 5.915 billion.

In exchange for pre-market action Schlumberger, who finished at 61.30 Thursday, yielded more than 2%.

The moratorium on offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico was decided after the explosion and sinking of the platform Deepwater Horizon, operated by BP, which left 11 dead and is causing the worst oil spill from the history of the United States.

But Schlumberger is less affected than, for example, Halliburton, by stopping the activity in the Gulf of Mexico, this region represents only 5% of its turnover.

The Nikkei closed up 0.69% Monday, supported by export values.

The Nikkei gained 63.07 points to 9,266.78 and the broader TOPIX took 5.91 points (0.71%) to 836.89.

The export values rebound after a week particularly difficult, during which they were penalized by the rising yen.

Nissan shares closed up 2.14% at 620 yen on good controls to the release of a new utility model sold about a month ago on the Japanese market.

Hitachi Ltd., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. were awarded respectively 1.87%, 0.66% and 1.87% at the announcement of a partnership on their activities in hydropower, winner.

The Chinese growth model, based on a docile workforce and cheap, is it threatened? The strike in Chinese factories of Honda and suicide clusters among the subcontractor Foxconn electronic, seem at least symbolic of a turn. These two events led to strong wage increases. And Beijing has validated this finding of a lack of remuneration in deciding dramatically Friday to raise the minimum wage by 20%. Twice that during the normal annual adjustment.

In a country accustomed to explosions of anger – with 127,000 protests in 2008 – and where information is locked, it is unclear whether they had the same impact in other times.

240 euros to live in Shenzhen

Until recently, indeed, the authority said that this kind of slippage occurs only in "capitalist" countries.But Premier Wen Jiabao has officially acknowledged the existence of a "certain level of social tension." It is also not a coincidence that the budget for public safety has increased significantly this year. But power is also well aware that the inequalities of wealth, rather than decreasing with the crisis has intensified further.

Further reading: The families that take in France