International Business News

The net private capital flight from Russia has already reached $ 43 billion in April. At this rate the figure of 80.5 billion recorded in 2011 could be beaten. Vladimir Putin.

The election of Vladimir Putin in March may have ended the political uncertainties but not the flight of private capital observed for two years in Russia. "Capital flight continued in April, to $ 8 billion, according to our preliminary estimates," said Monday the Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency. And the Russian official expects a continuation of mouvenment in May.

"Capital flight is much stronger than expected," added Mr. Klepach. In April, the Russian Central Bank (BCR) had indicated that net private capital flight from Russia had reached nearly $ 35.1 billion in first quarter 2012. In 2011, she had more than doubled compared to last year, to $ 80.5 billion, against $ 34.4 billion in 2010.

To explain this phenomenon, the leaders of the Russian Central Bank has repeatedly complained of the poor investment climate in Russia. The acceleration of this phenomenon is also due to the global financial crisis, making loans harder to obtain, put a stop to capital inflow in Russia, according to rating agency Standard and Poor's. The agency had also discussed the "political uncertainties" that weighed before the presidential election of March 4, won by the country's strongman, Vladimir Putin.

"It is not possible to renegotiate the pact budget", said on Monday a spokesman for German Chancellor. This ensures that Francois Hollande will be welcomed "with open arms." German Chancellor Angela Merkel (the Bundestag by December 2, 2011).

Germany has raised its conditions Monday to President-elect Francois Hollande, ruling out any renegotiation of the European fiscal pact and all initiatives "growth deficit".

"It is not possible to renegotiate the fiscal pact", which has already been "signed by 25 of the 27 member states of the European Union", which aims to strengthen discipline in public finance management, said the spokesman of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Steffen Seibert, during a press conference.

He was asked about the willingness of Mr. Holland to add a component to the pact on growth. In this regard, Mr. Seibert also reiterated the conditions of Berlin: Germany does not want "a growth deficit, but growth through structural reforms."

Clearly, there is no question for the Merkel government in Europe to promote recovery policies, but to promote the path chosen by Germany and the labor market reforms implemented by former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder .

French President elect had scored on his victory speech by his willingness to "give to the European dimension of growth, employment, prosperity, the future" and explain in Berlin and other partners that "the austerity could no longer be inevitable. "

A little later, Angela Merkel said that Francois Hollande is welcomed "with open arms" during his first visit to Germany, taking place after the handover. "We work well together and intensively," said Merkel at a news conference in Berlin, stressing that "the Franco-German cooperation is essential for Europe and we all want Europe to succeed" .

The consortium led by Russia's Gazprom to develop the giant Shtokman gas field in the Arctic in June will announce an overhaul of this project, which accuses several years of delay, have we learned from several sources within the consortium, industry and Russian authorities.

Gazprom and its allies in this project, which include the French Total and Norway's Statoil, plan to give up on the Shtokman gas transit to Europe through pipelines in favor of production liquefied natural gas (LNG), the sources explained.

They stated that no decision on this point had been adopted so far, but several sources have said that the consortium had canceled all tenders already started to build. 

A redesign of the project could result in a delay in the production field, currently scheduled for 2016.

"For now, the technical configuration of the project not suitable for any of the shareholders, so they are not willing to take a final investment decision," said a source in the consortium.

Signing a new agreement could intervene at a meeting of investors in St. Petersburg in June, she added.

"After that one year might be necessary before a final investment decision. They need time to launch new tenders and find new suppliers. "

Net inflows of life insurance has turned positive in February for the first time since August. But the lights are far from all being returned to green. Explanations.

Life insurance finds the appeal to the French. Net new money (deposits less withdrawals) was positive in February in France, to the tune of 300 million euros for the first time in seven months, according to figures released Friday by the two main associations of insurers. This figure confirms the recent comments from several insurers, which reported a relative normalization of the market after a very difficult semester, unprecedented in the history of this offering.

Withdrawals down

The return to the green net inflows is primarily attributable to a sharp slowdown in redemptions (withdrawals), down 24% compared to January. They are still 21% above their level in February 2011. At the same time, payments recorded a more moderate decline of 14% compared to January 2012 and 13.5% compared with February 2011, according to figures released by the French Association of Insurance (AFA), that meets the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA) and the Group of mutual insurance companies (Gema). The total amount placed on life insurance contracts has increased from 1.369 billion to 1.377 billion in January end in late February.

These figures tend to confirm the speech held by many insurers, who announced several weeks back to "a sense of normalcy," the term used by the CEO of AXA France, Nicolas Moreau, mid-February. "The movement announced inflection is confirmed over the last month," he told AFP the president of the FFSA, Bernard Spitz, while calling for caution. "It is far too early to see a trend," he warned. Life insurance, however, seems out of the rut, after a year-end nightmare.

Crisis in the eurozone and sluggish economy

The product has suffered because of the deepening crisis in the euro area, which prompted investors to favor short-term investments. But many of these products were already pushed forcefully by banks, launched a hunt for deposits in view of the arrival of the new regulatory framework, says Basel III.

Climate degradation, but also the planned reduction of Scellier, also resulted in the postponement of significant financial investments to real estate. "There was an overall campaign debt", marked, among other things, a wave of mortgage repayments, observed Mr. Moreau. He said "it is possible that at the peak of the crisis, our people have chosen to pay off debt rather than reinvest."

Calming the markets

The normalization of markets, beginning in 2012, supported by advances on Greece and off operations of the European Central Bank (ECB), have provided some form of appeasement. "The purchases have decreased significantly, people are less worried" at the end of 2011, said Thursday the CEO of the insurance arm of BNP Paribas, Eric Lombard. "On the first months of 2012, Aviva is pleased with the evolution of the collection," said Aviva France Friday. However, several factors unfavorable to life remain, primarily the arrival of the retired generation "baby boom" and the continued decline in yields. Last month, the CEO of CNP Assurances, Gilles Benoist, and had talked about "turning point".  

"Life insurance is going to find his true vocation, which is not to compete with short-term banking products, but to constitute a real reserve of long-term savings and fund pensions and dependency," he had said. A vocation that does not seem challenged by the candidates in the presidential election in a position to be elected. "On the substantive issues, there is a line of force that consensus on the left and right is one that returns a favor long-term savings," said Mr. Spitz. For him, "everybody understands that to have growth, you need investment and therefore long-term savings. I have no fear as long as this message has gone."

At just over 24 hours of the deadline, creditors who have declared themselves in favor of the plan of exchange of obligations still account for only 39.3% of the country's debt. Greece in the storm

Private creditors had already decided in favor of the exchange of Greek debt does currently represent 39.3%, or 81 billion euros, the amount covered by this operation, said Wednesday the committee private creditors in a communiqué.Cependant, the 50% threshold, from which Greece can possibly forcing some creditors to participate, is approaching.

The deadline to tender its shares to the exchange is set at 9:00 p.m. Thursday (2000 GMT). The exchange for 206 billion euros of debt held by private creditors (banks, investment funds, insurers, etc.). In total, the Greek debt than 350 billion euros.  

Greece has already indicated that it would not proceed with the exchange if the turnout did not reach at least 75% of this part of the Greek debt held by private creditors. She also announced that if this threshold was disappointing, it could compel, through collective action clauses (CAC), all private creditors to submit to the exchange.

To date, no non-Greek financial institution holding a significant amount of Greek debt has not officially spoken out against the exchange. Several major banks, insurers and investment funds have not yet publicly announced their decision.

The committee, meeting under the auspices of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents major global financial institutions, in a statement cites 30 banks, insurers and investment funds that have made public their support for the plan. This is mainly European companies, supplemented by the management company American Greylock Capital Management and the U.S. insurer Metlife.

Moreover, contacted by AFP, the largest regional German bank, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) said it would participate in the exchange. The approximately one billion euros of Greek bonds it holds are now housed in the bad bank established with the support of the German state, called Erste Abwicklungsanstalt (EAA).

Another rallying not taken into account by the press, that of German reinsurer Munich Re, said Wednesday that the agency Dow Jones, he would take part in the operation. The gross value of its securities amounted to 1.53 billion euros in late September.  

First holder of Greek debt outside Greece, the German bank Hypo Real Estate (HRE), has not spoken publicly since the agreement on the new conditions of the plan, in Brussels on February 21, but had previously expressed its intention to contribute. The bad bank of HRE, called FMS, held at the end of the first half of 2011, about 8.1 billion euros of Greek debt.

Rapid closure of the Fessenheim nuclear power plant, in Alsace, the grid could put a strain on both sides of the Rhine and raise prices during peak demand, believe analysts and traders polled by Reuters.

Francois Hollande promised, if he wins the presidential election in May, to close the oldest nuclear power plant the French fleet which, besides its 34 years of service, is also trè ; s criticized because of its location in a seismic zone.

But the Socialist candidate did not say when, and this schedule will be critical to network operators as to the market as they will need several months to adjust. 

Bernard Cazeneuve, in charge of energy with the candidate Francois Hollande, declined to comment on the consequences of closing Fessenheim.

If, in case of victory, Francois Hollande kept his promise in the wake of its accession to the Elysee, the French offer of electricity could shrink and prices s' fly to favor consumption peaks during which France is already operating at full production capacity, according to traders.

In France, each degree Celsius less on the thermometer causes an increase of 2,300 megawatts (MW) of electricity consumption, equivalent to twice the consumption of a city Marseille as a third of French homes are heated with electric heaters. 

During the cold snap in February, the French electricity demand hit a record 101,700 MW, 105 MW more than the country's production. Prices have skyrocketed and electricity transmission network (RTE), the network manager, was forced to ask consumers to reduce the maximum use of their devices é ; electric.

A decline in nuclear output could increase the deficit during the next peak consumption.

EDF, which manages 58 French reactors, and RTE did not wish to comment on the impact of a shutdown of Fessenheim on offer.

"We see every year a new record demand, so close Fessenheim certainly mean higher prices and risks for the supply of winter," said a trader based in electricity london. 

Traders and analysts said that France, the leading exporter of electricity in Europe, will not take the risk to close Fessenheim until you have installed production capacity sufficient to offset this loss.

"Fessenheim close perhaps in 2017, and the impact on prices will then depend on the ability of France had to quickly build wind farms, gas-fired unit and ; s biomass to compensate for the lost electricity, "said the trader in London.

At Flamanville (Manche), in 2007 EDF began construction of a new EPR nuclear reactor of 1650 MW. Delayed by 4 years, its commissioning is scheduled for 2016.

"If the EPR is again delayed, this could complicate things," said another trader.

SECURE SUPPLY

GERMAN

Also, if Fessenheim closed in 2012, Germany would face supply problems.

"If we close Fessenheim, there will be a real problem to secure supplies at local level on the southwest of Germany," said Fabien Roques, head of research at the company IHS CERA council.

"Fessenheim really brings (to Germany) production at a specific location on the network for managing peak demand during cold snaps," he added.

The plant, located between Mulhouse and Freiburg, has a capacity of 1,800 megawatts. 

After the disaster of Fukushima, Japan in March 2011, Germany decided to close eight of its 17 nuclear reactors, four of which were located in the south-west , a heavily populated area that is home to large cities such as Stuttgart and Heidelberg.

This region is now importing more electricity from the north – which produces massive electricity from wind – but also from France, Belgium and Luxembourg, according to analysts.

A spokesman for EnBW Transportnetze, the electricity transmission network in south-west Germany, confirmed to Reuters that a closure of Fessenheim would impact on its network . Should be used more frequently to production sites and non-nuclear alternative to maintain balance in the region, she said.

Main black spot, a plant closure could jeopardize Alsatian drawing rights granted to the German supplier E.ON, 800 MW from the central French Fessenheim and Cattenom, also near the German border .

These rights could be redirected to other stations, said a spokesman for the German utility, adding that the exchange agreement may be renegotiated between the two countries.

Societe Generale on Thursday posted a profit below expectations for the fourth quarter due to increased losses in its banking activities and investment banking (CIB) of Due to the crisis in the euro area and said to remain cautious this year.

The bank said in a statement it had passed a new provision of € 162 million on government debt in the last quarter of 2011, bringing its funding to 75%, as its rival BNP Paribas.

In CIB, being restructured due to the crisis, the group posted a net loss of 482 million euros.

Its quarterly net income of spring suddenly falling from 88% to 100 million euros. 

"I remain generally cautious for 2012," said Frederic Oudéa, the bank's CEO, on CNBC. "I'm happy with the start of the year in respect of market activities."

The consensus reached by the editor of Reuters expected a profit of 190 million euros for the last three months of 2011, a drop of 78%, including a loss of only 81 million euros in the BFI.

"The dollar liquidity needs of corporate banking and investment have been reduced by about 55 billion USD in the second half," said the bank, which have added accel ; Lere disposals in its portfolio of toxic assets in the second half of 2011.

These sales had a negative impact of 524 million euros on revenues of the BFI on the fourth quarter alone. 

Wednesday, BNP Paribas has reported better than expected results in the fourth quarter. In addition to reassuring the leaders of 2012, analysts point out that the bank financing and investment of the BNP was more resilient in the crisis than its main competitors.

At the Paris Bourse, before publishing the results of the bank, title company generally closed up 2.19% to 22.38 euros. He won 30% since the beginning of the year after plunging 57% in 2011.

The U.S. company Spirit Airlines confirmed Wednesday an order for 75 A320 aircraft manufacturer Airbus, valued at seven billion dollars (5.3 billion) at list prices. The MoU, which was announced in mid-November at the Dubai air show, includes 45 A320neo, the enhanced single-aisle Airbus, a subsidiary of europe ; in EADS. The company has not announced the engine selected, the aircraft manufacturer said in a statement. 45 A320neo have been recorded in the order book in December 2011. The success of the A320neo, more fuel efficient, has allowed Airbus to sell almost twice as many planes as its U.S. rival Boeing in 2011, although it acknowledges that it will be difficult to keep the advantage in 2012, with the response of 737MAX, improved version of the aisle of his American rival.

France is the most fragile countries rated AAA. The elections also reduce the room for maneuver in terms of austerity. The France remains very solvent, judge Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo Securities. But a drop in spending is essential. The 7 World Trade Center, the headquarters address of the credit rating agency Moody's in New York. You have no doubt about the solvency of France?

No. On many occasions, the rumor current trading rooms said that France was about to lose its AAA. To date, all the rating agencies have reaffirmed that the French note kept a stable outlook. Before the elections, it is this perspective which may be changed more than the note itself. However, the situation of French public finances requires quick adjustments.In addition, the French specificity is that elections are before us.

What the next presidential election is she at risk?

Electoral constraint involves two risks. First, there is a risk of inertia or paralysis pre-election, which forced the choice of economic policy in half measures or even, as we have seen in the extreme case of the United States in malfunctions. In France, the measures announced on August 24 to put the deficit on track were chosen with the clear objective to give no pretext for the corporatism of the public to take to the streets to defend its "social gains". Almost all of the 12 billion euros in savings is to increase the tax burden in a country where government revenues are already over 50% of GDP.

U.S. GDP grew by 2.5% in the third quarter, annualized. This level was accelerated by the rise in household consumption and private investment. Barack Obama at the press conference on July 15, 2011 on U.S. debt

GDP figures published Thursday in the United States show a marked improvement in U.S. growth and suggest a strengthening of the recovery, indispensable prelude to a decrease of mass unemployment affecting the country. The first estimate of Commerce, the U.S. domestic product grew in the third quarter from 2.5% annualized over the second. The number of government reflects a significant improvement over the spring which saw growth rise to 1.3% after falling 0.4% recorded in the first quarter.

The period July to September is the best quarter of the U.S. economy since the summer of 2010. The ministry said the growth was driven by the acceleration of private consumption and private investment excluding housing, which combined made up 3.3 point rise in GDP. The main obstacle to the improvement of gross domestic product was slowing, very strong, the increase in business inventories, which lost 1.1 points of growth.

Peter Newland, economist at Barclays Capital, the sharp change in stocks of summer is "a sign that companies have responded quickly to the weakness of domestic demand in the first half, and it is unlikely that [the slowdown in output stored] is repeated in the fourth quarter. "