While Athens is trying desperately to reassure its creditors on its ability to redress the public finances, the possibility of a temporary exit from the euro zone was raised to the highest European level. Info ou intox? The island of Santorini, Greece.
While protestors shouted their refusal to be more sacrifices, the EU and IMF threaten Greece not to release the fifth installment of aid until the government has not implemented more stringent measures. Meanwhile, doubts about the ability of countries to return the nails are becoming stronger. Not only could eventually restructure its debt, but the possibility of leaving the euro area is starting to surface. "The scenario of a distance from Greece to the euro is now on the table" and said Wednesday the Greek European Commissioner Maria Damanaki.
Why does she Greece in the euro area?
The rescue plan designed to Greece as the country returns to the markets in 2012 has not borne fruit: the deficit is higher than expected and the interest rates charged by the markets are exorbitant. "So far, treated the crisis as a Greek temporary liquidity crisis when he was a solvency crisis," said Eric Dor, a professor of economics at IESEGC. In other words, Greece is unable to repay the whole of a debt that should represent one and half times its GDP at the end of 2011. More and more European leaders therefore believe that a reduction of at least one third of the redemption value of securities Greek is necessary to ensure the solvency of the country over the long term.
But this is not enough: "fiscal sustainability is not a cure for chronic deficit and substantial trade balance of Greece," said Harvard economist Martin Feldstein in an article for Project Syndicate. For that Greece could limit or reduce the trade deficit without harming economic activity and employment, it will import less and export more. "But if Greece came out of the eurozone, it could devalue and quickly gain price competitiveness. The tourism and agri-food products including again become attractive.Certainly, "the devaluation would mean more expensive imports, but it is politically easier to reduce real wages by inflation than imposing wage deflation, that is to say a decline in nominal wages to increase competitiveness, "says Eric Dor.
Mark Weisbrot, director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, draws a parallel with Argentina, which defaulted on its debt in late 2001 and won its currency to the dollar to devalue its currency: "GDP has fallen for a quarter only and then increased by 63% over the six years after. Within three years, GDP has recovered its pre-crisis level, "he wrote in The New York Times. By contrast, the IMF s 'expected that Greece take eight years to regain its pre-crisis level. "
It may be objected that with a devalued currency, the euro debt would weigh even heavier."But the fact is that Greece does not just pay his debt, contends Mark Weisbrot, as Argentina did not pay two-thirds of its foreign debt.
Is this legal?
The Lisbon Treaty allows a Member State to leave the EU as a whole but not to leave EMU only. "The absence of such a mechanism was used precisely to reassure markets about the permanence of the euro area", explains in his blog Economist Greek YanisVaroufakis.
"In theory, the state should first withdraw from the entire EU and then try to negotiate a new membership, but with derogation as regards the monetary union," says Eric Dor. Another way lawful to withdraw would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty. But the process would take too long, and during that time speculators were bent on Greece. "That is why some analysts believe that European leaders could do with a political agreement with European regulations simple. "After all, we see that in an emergency, the Member States and the ECB have managed to make the necessary Treaty breaches, says the economist. In fact, states have found ways to circumvent the clause 'no lease-out and ban the ECB to redeem public debt of the States …. "
But is it too risky?
For Greece First, it is not clear that the benefits are worth the devaluation of the coup against everything she would lose by leaving the eurozone. According to economist Jacques Delpla, "a defect and leaving the euro area would mean for them ever to return to the euro, a pariah status in Europe, excluding European public and private funding."After all, Greece is a country "relatively poor with a history of weak governance has much to gain membership in the European project," said Paul Krugman, which discusses practical issues such as the Cohesion Fund, which represent 2% of Greek GDP but the overall effect of stabilizing part of a great democratic alliance.
Moreover, Greece is not Argentina. "Despite the anchor of its currency with the dollar, the Argentine peso was still in circulation, said the Nobel Prize. It was so much easier to win. It can mean the difference between a brief period of shock and a wide financial collapse. "
From the perspective of the euro area, output Greece certainly would free its members from having to hand the wallet and pay for the irresponsibility accounting, budgetary and taxation of the country.But it is a very thin edge over the destabilizing effect such a scenario would have on the European banking sector. YanisVaroufakis depicts the chaos that would occur "to hold this event financial 'massive, Germany and other triple-A should recapitalize the ECB to the tune of at least 190 billion euros to inject massive amounts, as in 2008, in money markets and save the German and French banks. The latter hold respectively 26 and 20 billion euros in debt indefinitely. And if we add the exposure to Greek private sector, then France is set to the tune of 92 billion. Even European states accept these expenses, this would not prevent the crisis from spreading, since the markets would look to Ireland and Portugal Greece imitate.In sum, unless the abandonment of the euro is inevitable restructuring that would accompany it raises the fear of reliving a financial armageddon comparable to that caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.