International Business News

Net inflows of life insurance has turned positive in February for the first time since August. But the lights are far from all being returned to green. Explanations.

Life insurance finds the appeal to the French. Net new money (deposits less withdrawals) was positive in February in France, to the tune of 300 million euros for the first time in seven months, according to figures released Friday by the two main associations of insurers. This figure confirms the recent comments from several insurers, which reported a relative normalization of the market after a very difficult semester, unprecedented in the history of this offering.

Withdrawals down

The return to the green net inflows is primarily attributable to a sharp slowdown in redemptions (withdrawals), down 24% compared to January. They are still 21% above their level in February 2011. At the same time, payments recorded a more moderate decline of 14% compared to January 2012 and 13.5% compared with February 2011, according to figures released by the French Association of Insurance (AFA), that meets the French Federation of Insurance Companies (FFSA) and the Group of mutual insurance companies (Gema). The total amount placed on life insurance contracts has increased from 1.369 billion to 1.377 billion in January end in late February.

These figures tend to confirm the speech held by many insurers, who announced several weeks back to "a sense of normalcy," the term used by the CEO of AXA France, Nicolas Moreau, mid-February. "The movement announced inflection is confirmed over the last month," he told AFP the president of the FFSA, Bernard Spitz, while calling for caution. "It is far too early to see a trend," he warned. Life insurance, however, seems out of the rut, after a year-end nightmare.

Crisis in the eurozone and sluggish economy

The product has suffered because of the deepening crisis in the euro area, which prompted investors to favor short-term investments. But many of these products were already pushed forcefully by banks, launched a hunt for deposits in view of the arrival of the new regulatory framework, says Basel III.

Climate degradation, but also the planned reduction of Scellier, also resulted in the postponement of significant financial investments to real estate. "There was an overall campaign debt", marked, among other things, a wave of mortgage repayments, observed Mr. Moreau. He said "it is possible that at the peak of the crisis, our people have chosen to pay off debt rather than reinvest."

Calming the markets

The normalization of markets, beginning in 2012, supported by advances on Greece and off operations of the European Central Bank (ECB), have provided some form of appeasement. "The purchases have decreased significantly, people are less worried" at the end of 2011, said Thursday the CEO of the insurance arm of BNP Paribas, Eric Lombard. "On the first months of 2012, Aviva is pleased with the evolution of the collection," said Aviva France Friday. However, several factors unfavorable to life remain, primarily the arrival of the retired generation "baby boom" and the continued decline in yields. Last month, the CEO of CNP Assurances, Gilles Benoist, and had talked about "turning point".  

"Life insurance is going to find his true vocation, which is not to compete with short-term banking products, but to constitute a real reserve of long-term savings and fund pensions and dependency," he had said. A vocation that does not seem challenged by the candidates in the presidential election in a position to be elected. "On the substantive issues, there is a line of force that consensus on the left and right is one that returns a favor long-term savings," said Mr. Spitz. For him, "everybody understands that to have growth, you need investment and therefore long-term savings. I have no fear as long as this message has gone."

European shares are wait-Thursday at mid-session, pausing near eight-month peaks, investors apparently waiting for confirmation of a more general economic before pushing the rating further.

In this regard, a volley of U.S. indicators that fall into the afternoon, particularly the weekly jobless claims, will perhaps clarify their ideas. Stakeholders on Wall Street seem to bet they'll be good since the index contracts suggest an opening up.

Following the example of the general trend, the CAC 40 gained just 0.02% to 3565.15. "It may be that up a bit as we approach the weekend, we have good momentum and we could leverage with U.S. statistics, if they are better than pre seen, "said Peter Grandy (Saxo Bank).

The U.S. jobless claims may become more important than usual because of recent strong U.S. data and explain that investors have once again risk appetite.

Values, Alstom wins 2% to 32.185 euros. The CEO declined to comment on "speculation" evoking an interest of his group for wind turbine manufacturers.

Several European newspapers have reported in recent days that Alstom was considering the possibility to purchase the German REpower, owned by the Indian Suzlon Energy, Spanish or Danish Vestas Gamesa.

Gamesa wins Vestas 2.57% and 5.53%.

Lufthansa fell 0.8%. The airline announced Thursday a further reduction of its expansion plans and warned that its operating profit would probably decline in 2012 due to economic uncertainty, the renché ; dieback fuel and possible unrest.

The Motor Show of Geneva, which will open to the public Thursday, will be dominated by the alliance between PSA Peugeot Citroen and General Motors, the last wedding date in an industry where economies of cost and scale have become the top priority.

The question of how specific short-term reconciliation between the PSA and GM, while the strategic partnership announced Wednesday plans for 2016 the full effect of synergies and the first models of vehicles common, will be on everyone's mind at the first major European motor show of the year.

"This industrial agreement is very revealing of current changes in the automobile sector," said Flavien Neuvy, Director of the Cetelem automobile. "The manufacturers have no choice and they know they can not do everything together."

"However, to achieve such an alliance, it takes time, past experience has shown that the risk of failure is not zero," he adds. "But if it works, it is a promising project."

The last major events of the profession were all marked by the quest for synergy. The 2009 Frankfurt Motor Show had devoted the rapprochement between Fiat and Chrysler, Frankfurt 2011 was marked by the announcement of new cooperation between Renault-Nissan and Daimler. As for Geneva 2010, he remained famous for including the formalization of the collapse of talks between Mitsubishi and PSA, with which the French group was then trying to marry.

ALWAYS OFFER A VARIED DESPITE THE POOLING

In an industry marked by increased global competition, the carmaker can no longer rely only on their internal resources to develop new products both at reasonable cost and in die lais fast enough to track changes in consumer tastes and tougher safety and environmental standards.

But this sharing does not lead to a standardization provided cars because the objective is to share components and architectures invisible from the outside. 

"The Peugeot and Citroen have never shared many components and platforms industrially today, yet they have never had their own identity as distinct," observes Translation ; ois Roudier, spokesman for the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA).

Geneva will be, like any self-respecting lounge, a new ball with some highly anticipated world premieres such as the Renault Zoé, who spearheaded the bet electrical manufacturer.

On the stand Dacia brand Renault's low cost, we discover the minivan Lodgy including the launch of construction in Morocco has been surrounded by controversy on the theme of "Made in France ", a theme central to the presidential campaign. 

Side of the PSA, Citroen C4 unveil its compact 4×4 Aircross based on the Mitsubishi ASX, while Peugeot present the 208 through which the lion brand hopes to extend a success story started in this segment in the 1980s with the 205.

The competition will not be outdone. Another icon, the Volkswagen Golf, GTI will appear in his livery cab, and Audi, the German premium brand group, will present its new A3. Fiat's famous 500 curves take with the L variant, Italian replica of the BMW Mini Countryman.

Builders rely on these innovations to support expected sales down 3% to 4% this year in Europe, making the region one of the world where the automotive market will contract in 2012.

A motor show would not totally successful without some "supercars". Visitors can admire the 6 Series Coupe BMW Grand, the futuristic Nuccio signed by the famous coachbuilder Bertone or the most powerful Ferrari ever made, with the F12 Berlinetta not less than 729 horsepower.

After two press days, Tuesday and Wednesday, the Geneva Motor Show will open to the public from March 8 to 18.

Between 200 and 300 steelworkers at ArcelorMittal Florange were installed at the outlet from which the finished products of the factory. At the same time opens in La Plaine-Saint-Denis, the French headquarters of ArcelorMittal, a central works council on the future of the site. The ArcelorMittal steel plant in Moselle Florange

Between 200 and 300 steelworkers ArcelorMittal plant Florange (Moselle) Thursday blocked the release of shipments of the site to try to get the direction of restarting blast furnaces shut down since October, said a journalist of AFP. The protesters were installed at the outlet from which the finished products factory, mainly sheet metal coils for the automotive industry. Unions fear the "programmed death" of this site, which employs 5,000 employees, after the announcement of management, last week, the blast furnaces would restart not only in the second quarter. The No. 1 global steel industry maintains that it is just a temporary standby necessary due to insufficient demand.

"We decided to hit Mittal where it hurts: the wallet," the official said CFDT Edward Martin, announcing "a block of unlimited duration." "We will build a war chest, loot the fruit of our labor," he said. At the same time opened in La Plaine-Saint-Denis, the French headquarters of ArcelorMittal, a central works council on the future of Florange site. While its two blast furnaces are dormant for several months, the hot rolling mill train Florange always produces some 200,000 tonnes per month of steel for automotive technology. The site is stocked with steel slabs produced by the ArcelorMittal plant in Dunkirk.  

With this deadlock, the union hopes disrupt production in the automotive industry, has seen one of them, "just-works". ArcelorMittal Florange delivers its finished products manufacturers Peugeot, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Audi and Toyota. This action "punch" is the first conducted by the Inter CGT / CFDT / FO / CFE-CGC, after the occupation of management Monday. The Inter promised she would be "the nightmare of government," until May 6, when the second round of the presidential election. ArcelorMittal has recently decided the final closure of blast furnaces in Liege (Belgium) and Madrid, the other (two in Florange, Lorraine, one in Germany, two in Poland, two in Romania and Czech Republic) were officially launched pending before the upturn in orders.

On Tuesday, President-candidate Nicolas Sarkozy said: "We will make sure that (the Florange) reopens." FO federation of metallurgy has arrested Wednesday group management and government, demanding written commitments on the future of the plant Moselle.

Management companies in France are beginning to substitute for banks and lending almost "live" business (corporate) facing the credit crunch bank , says Antoine Flamarion, president of Tikehau Capital, Credit Specialist.

Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and the willingness of regulators to strengthen prudential regulations that require a high level of capital to risk, banks, anxious to ease further their balance sheets, have significantly tightened their credit policies. 

"Banks are not lending, it is fine to have find lenders elsewhere," said Antoine Flamarion in an interview with Reuters, adding that Tikehau has funded a clinical enterprise private, Vitalia, belonging to private equity fund Blackstone.

Since 2008, in a highly regulated, financial corporations other than banks can finance companies.

Antoine said that Flamarion Tikehau had essentially mounted operations of this type in the world of LBO (Leveraged buyout or acquisition with debt leverage) and real estate, while broadening the spectrum to finance activities in dollars that banks no longer provide. 

"This is where we think we have the best risk / return ratio, that is where we have more room."

"Since we do not have unlimited resources, for us the question is always when at work 25 to 35 million euros, is to put it on the assets re -paid workers to Euribor plus 700, 800, 1,000, 1,200 basis points, "he said.

BANK FINANCING CERTAIN drop

The three-month Euribor, which is the reference to credit operations at variable rates in the eurozone, was just over 1% (1.036%) Friday .

"For now, we have tended to concentrate on issues and topics LBO estate," said Antoine Flamarion. 

"It was an operation at the end of 2011 real estate financing (…) We refinanced bonds estate of a foreign structure that de French assets held. Fifteen million matured. We kept the existing contract obligations and we just changed the rate. It was lent to 15%, "he said

. Tikehau also participated in financing activities such as shipping or aviation in need of dollars and that French banks do not finance more

. "There was done a little differently, we did not take the debt but we have invested capital with a family that owns the tankers, "he said

.

"The banks are out a lot of business funding and therefore we see a lot of asset classes in finance," he said. 

Tikehau Capital manages € 800 million, including $ 250 million deal with the tradeable public debt (corporate bonds) on the credit market and 550 million euros for private debt e (private debt) in the form of mezzanine funds and special situation funds.

DREAMS OF THE DEBT

"In 550 million, is made of primary and secondary. The primary is Blackstone. In the secondary market, that we sometimes buy distressed debt," he adds .

Antoine Flamarion intends to develop the private debt activity can represent, for LBO France, a market of 5.0 billion euros.

"Normally players as we are of secondary we buy ready-made products, but we will increasingly be the primary."

"Potentially, this is a big market. For example, the Company generally sells its entire portfolio of loans to real estate professionals. It means that some of these professionals who used to borrow from the SocGen will go and borrow elsewhere so we think a number of professions, real estate and LBO on it require substitutions to banks, "he said

. Insurers will have to play an important role in this area ..

……. According to him, disintermediation is expected to increase in Europe. In other words, like what is happening for a long time in the U.S., companies are going to look more to the credit market as far 80% of their funding came from banks.

Antoine Flamarion cites the example of Blackstone, best known for its private equity activity but an activity that "private debt" provided by its subsidiary GSO manages, according to the website of Blackstone, near of $ 44 billion on nearly 180 billion in total managed by the group.

"Today, everyone dreams of making the debt. As private equity can no longer raise money, all private equity funds begin to make the debt," said the head of Tikehau.

Manitou in the first half is expected to reach its growth target of 15% of sales through an order book expanded, says CEO of the group specializes in forklift elements observers, although it remains cautious about the second half.

The group, which designs equipment for the industries of construction, agriculture and industry, had said in October that it expected growth in sales between 10% and 15% of the whole year.

"For the first half, I think 15% is almost acquired since, again, it is largely conditioned by the order book we have today in the hands," said Jean- Christophe Giroux, in an interview with Reuters. 

"The real question is what will happen in the second half and if the activity will slow or not by then," he added. "We can say that it will or may slow down if for example there was a real credit crunch."

Jean-Christophe Giroux has also confirmed its target of achieving a double digit operating margin in 2014-2015, a period when the turnover is expected to reach one billion from 1.6 to 1.7 euros, against 1.1 billion last year.

Manitou, which is to rival the French and American Haulotte Caterpillar, said in January this year wish to review in depth the organization to improve operational flexibility.

"We feel that we simply are not effective or efficient in our own industrial or operational management," commented Jean-Christophe Giroux. 

According Manitou, farming should improve and could become the fastest growing market this year, generating 45% of turnover, while the construction is affected by the uncertain economic environment in Europe.

"The construction remains depressed in many countries, there is almost no activity in Spain or Portugal, or even in Italy," said Group CEO.

The title Manitou increased 50% since the beginning of the year, bringing its market capitalization to around 700 million euros.

France prepares to beat Thursday's record consumption of electricity and gas. Blame the intense cold that strikes the Hexagon. Y there is a risk of blackouts? Cars are blocked due to the snow at Saint-Arnoult-en-Yvelines toll near Paris December 8, 2010 as winter weather and freezing temperatures sub-continuous in France. (FRANCE – Tags: ENVIRONMENT TRANSPORT)

The cold wave that moved to France will intensify in the coming days, but so far, "no major blackouts are to be expected" reassures Herve Mignon, Director of Economy, Planning and transparency in TEN (a subsidiary of EDF). In total this Thursday, 41 counties are in orange alert "cold and snow", until Saturday, 7 am. Level 3 Plan "Extreme Cold" was triggered in Isere, Savoie and in the Oise and the North. "It is seven degrees below seasonal averages of both north and south," said the forecaster Meteo France Dominique Raspaud. A cold that will become even stronger to the end of the week throughout France. For Friday, says Ms. Raspaud to AFP, "is expected within 5 to Marseille in the south-west, at least 6 Bordeaux and La Rochelle, below the minus 10 in Alsace, France-Comté and Rhône Alps "… Even in Britain, a region often spared the extreme temperatures are expected least 1 or less 2 Friday morning in Brest.

Consumption soaring …

The latest forecast of RTE, EDF subsidiary that manages the French high-voltage network, the national electricity consumption would reach 95,500 megawatts (MW) this Thursday at rush hour, at 19h, grazing and the peak total of 15 December 2010 (96,710 MW). After a hard day following the historic summit next Monday could be exceeded, providing RTE for now peaked at 98,700 MW that day. However, an estimate will be refined at the mercy of weather bulletins France. The reason for the runaway? The cold wave which pushes the Hexagon shiver the French to run their electric heaters at full speed. "During cold spells in winter, when there is a degree Celsius less, this corresponds to 2,300 megawatts of additional consumption, the equivalent of twice the consumption of the city of Marseille," recalls Herve Mignon, Director of the economy, foresight and transparency in TEN.  

But … no risk of "blackout" National

"Nationally, there is no risk now, in the sense that the means of production and available national electricity imports from neighboring countries can meet the electricity consumption as expected, "said M.Mignon.

To spend the winter safely, France is indeed important to the Power Utilities. She buys from Germany and Great Britain. Belgium and Denmark can also provide electricity. Spain, if it is untouched by the cold wave, could also provide some of the energy it needs by turning to its own power base.

Increased prevention of certain departments

RTE enabled for the first time this season the device Ecowatt in both "electric peninsulas" that are Brittany and the Côte d'Azur, which were placed in "orange alert". A clear message was sent: "We invite you to moderate your consumption of electricity between 18:00 and 20:00." And for good reason, these areas suffer from a lack of internal capacity of electricity generation, and therefore rely on neighboring regions to meet their energy needs. They are located at the ends of the national grid, it creates risks of bottleneck in their diet. In the Var, 3,000 homes remained without power Thursday morning.

Some useful tips

The right temperature is 19 ° C, no more! A simple thing: go to 20 ° C to 19 ° C in the living rooms of 7% to reduce your energy consumption. In the rooms, ADEME cautions that it is better to keep a temperature between 16 ° C and 17 ° C. In case of absence, he should lower the heating and do not put them up after work. "They will not heat the room faster," said the Environment Agency and energy management. Reduce power consumption between 17h and 20h in winter. few simple actions like turning off appliances on standby, turn down the heat in unoccupied rooms, close the shutters at night, and use appliances after 20h. Companies must also participate in this national effort.

Europe has not found a solution to the debt crisis likely to restore investor confidence, said Friday the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, calling, as a remedy, better integration.

"The truth is that, for now, there is no response to the crisis that sovereign restore investor confidence," said José Manuel Barroso to reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Portugal.

"As long as this does not occur, we will have very serious problems and debates in Europe."

Asked about the possible role of the European Central Bank to the crisis, the President of the Commission considered that it should remain independent.

Many economists believe the ECB should act as lender of last resort for the most indebted countries in the euro area to address the crisis, or that it should resort to quantitative easing operations as do the Reserve Federal and Bank of England to support their economies.

But Germany has so far been adamant against these proposals, arguing that the ECB should remain independent and that its mandate was to fight against inflation.

"We are confident that the European Central Bank will fulfill its role as it has done so far," said José Manuel Barroso.

Reducing to 1% GDP growth expectations in 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy warned that 6 to 8 billion euros in savings or additional revenues must be found.

While a half point of growth in less than about 5 billion shortfall for the state budget, the risk of a vicious circle is not excluded, the lowering of growth forecasts calling plans savings which in turn contribute to more depressed activity.

"You will never make me believe that with 1,000 billion of public expenditure, we can not find 5 billion savings," tempers, however, the rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, the UMP Gilles Carrez.

U.S. GDP grew by 2.5% in the third quarter, annualized. This level was accelerated by the rise in household consumption and private investment. Barack Obama at the press conference on July 15, 2011 on U.S. debt

GDP figures published Thursday in the United States show a marked improvement in U.S. growth and suggest a strengthening of the recovery, indispensable prelude to a decrease of mass unemployment affecting the country. The first estimate of Commerce, the U.S. domestic product grew in the third quarter from 2.5% annualized over the second. The number of government reflects a significant improvement over the spring which saw growth rise to 1.3% after falling 0.4% recorded in the first quarter.

The period July to September is the best quarter of the U.S. economy since the summer of 2010. The ministry said the growth was driven by the acceleration of private consumption and private investment excluding housing, which combined made up 3.3 point rise in GDP. The main obstacle to the improvement of gross domestic product was slowing, very strong, the increase in business inventories, which lost 1.1 points of growth.

Peter Newland, economist at Barclays Capital, the sharp change in stocks of summer is "a sign that companies have responded quickly to the weakness of domestic demand in the first half, and it is unlikely that [the slowdown in output stored] is repeated in the fourth quarter. "