The rating agency Standard & Poor's reaffirms its trust in "AAA" of France. The opportunity to understand the links in a few risks to the note light, and challenged the role of rating agencies. This Thursday, August 18, Standard & Poor's is confident the triple A of France
Standard & Poor's is confident the triple A of France The rating agency expressed "confidence" in the ability of France to maintain its optimum rating "AAA". The president of the rating agency for the French-speaking Europe Carole Sirou said Thursday on RTL radio that "the note of France is" AAA "stable, it is the case since 1975." Asked about rumors of Degrate the French note that shook financial markets last August 10, she declined to comment.August 8, John Chambers, chairman of the state rating of S & P reaffirmed that France had a "well-designed fiscal policy" which justified its "AAA" rating with positive outlook "stable".
Read the interview with Carole Sirou, president of Standard & Poor's, on RTL: "We are confident about the AAA rating of France."
The Triple A of France inquièteMalgré assurances from the rating agencies, who denied rumors of degradation of the note of the Hexagon, the concern remains. "The ratio of debt / GDP ratio is approaching the danger zone, said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. It is not yet in the red but already in the orange." The rating agencies scrutinize closely the social spending of France. Second weakness, the lack of French growth, which does not pay interest on public debt.And the slowdown could continue. The expected growth in 2012 would not exceed 0.2%.
Read also: The anguish of the triple A of France
Why persistentPremière doubts because in the circle of countries stamped "AAA", France shows the worst budget ratios. Its deficit to 7% of GDP, above the level of other countries rated in the euro area. In addition, the primary deficit (excluding debt burden) is twice as high (3% of GDP) than its neighbors. From there to suggest that the hexagon is at the forefront of the next breakdown … Second reason, the commitments to reduce the deficit of France are struggling to convince. With growth low and, consequently, lower tax revenues, the country will have to make efforts for additional savings for deficit reduction.But in a report published mid-June, the Court of Auditors considers that "the effort goes beyond the measures that have already been taken." Removing more than expected tax loopholes, tax on very high incomes, increased taxation of life insurance, all measures envisaged by the Government, which will result in tax increases in 2012. Unless these measures to reduce the deficit does the cost of the presidential campaign. In 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy has loudly proclaimed that he was not elected to raise taxes …
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Rating agencies, the oracles marchésPour Gunther Capelle-Blancard, deputy director of CEPII, in times of great uncertainty about the economic outlook, financial markets are among the rating agencies the information readable and easy to interpret.These new oracles, act as aggravating factors of the crisis. They sow or exacerbate panic. Over the past 15 years, they never alert the warning signs of a crisis. Neither the failure of South American states in the 80 or the subprime crisis, nor that of the Greek debt in 2009. What to doubt their credibility. However, legislators and regulators have raised finance rating agencies to the level of ultimate reference. Difficult to deny that they have become essential because they illuminate the investors on the creditworthiness of the borrower. But to limit their destabilizing effects, detoxification is necessary, according to Gunther Capelle-Blancard. To limit their influence, they should be separate texts that regulate international finance, so that the rating agencies become mere sources of information among others.
See also: "You have to detoxify the rating agencies"
Dagong, rating agency alternative? According to the criteria of the Chinese agency Dagong Global Credit Rating, neither the U.S. nor the UK or France deserve the highest rating. Criticized for its dependence on the Chinese government, the agency presided over by Guan Jianzhong, at least has the merit of representing a creditor country, when the three major agencies, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch are from debtor countries. With public debt ratio of 96% for the United States, 83% for the UK and 85% for France in 2011, difficult to challenge their degradation. Dagong aggréée was not in the U.S., it has no influence on the markets. Yet there are voices calling for alternatives analysis grids.Thus, Norbert Gaillard, specialist and consultant ratings for the World Bank, like the arrival of players offering "different angles of analysis."
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