A win for the Blue World does not go up the morale of the French
Contrary to the myth of the victory of 1998, a course team of France in World Cup-2010 has little chance of boosting consumption and cheer to the French morose for months, analysts said.
"Given the past, there is little chance that there is an impact on the morale of the French," explains Benoit Heitz, chief of the division at INSEE cyclical synthesis. While in 1998, "there was an improvement in consumer confidence in July, when the victory of France, but the improvement trend existed before. At best, it would have amplified the trend already existing" he continues, noting that these good results were anyway mostly related to the fact that the competition was held in France.
But this year the World Cup takes place in South Africa and French morale was already at half mast.This indicator summarizes the views of households on the economic situation and declining steadily since the beginning of the year and has dropped 8 points since January. And the chances of a reversal through the course of the France team is minimal.
"Only a victory in the final could possibly have an exhilarating effect, otherwise it will be marginal," said Alexander Law, chief economist at Global Xerfi. "If we win, it will have a positive impact on consumer confidence, but it is only on their morale.And only if we win, if we lose the first round or even the final, "added Nicolas Bouzou, an analyst at Aster.
Impact on sales of TVs
Whether this improvement would last, "it depends much more on attitudes to austerity plan that results in World Cup," says he, in all cases ensuring that the course would have the Blues no impact on consumption. "At the macro level, it has no impact," he insists.
"Often they say that the victories of 1998 and 2000 have generated growth but this is not the case, growth was already there, also notes Marc Touati, director of Global Equities. "The victory is the icing on the cake.The route of the France team can only be the icing on the cake, and if it does not cake …", continues the analyst.
The World should certainly have an impact on sales of televisions, which France won or not. The GfK account and an increase of 200,000 to 250,000 pieces by this event that will invigorate even more a market already in great shape (8.7 million sales in 2010). Good results could also French "boost sales of textiles, with the Blues jerseys, notes Alexander Law. "But not to be extremely high, especially since the team of France does not enjoy a good symbol of love," he tempers.
An early elimination should not have any effect on consumer sentiment. "The team has qualified in pain, his popularity rating has rarely been so low, so people just say + they knew they were unable +.Unfortunately, the French economy has disadvantages much heavier than the poor performance of its sports teams, "said Alexander Law. Failure" could generate a movement of depression, but temporary, "said Marc Touati of his side.